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Small Energy Association: Distributed generation forecast for 2026

27 January 2026

The Small Energy Association has launched a special project "Forecasts 2026" dedicated to the development of distributed generation in Russia.

Taking into account the dynamics of 2025, the forecast for the growth of distributed generation in Russia is 2.1–2.3 GW in 2026 and 2.6 GW in 2027.

The total installed capacity can reach:

• ≈41.5 GW by the end of 2026.

• ≈45 GW by the end of 2027.

The Association notes that further dynamics will depend on regulatory decisions, the availability of technologies and investment strategies of market participants.

About what awaits the distributed energy industry in 2026 — Pavel Ilyushin, PhD, Vice President for Science at the AME, Head of the Center for Intelligent Electric Power Systems and Distributed Energy at the Institute for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Key points:

In 2026, distributed energy in Russia will continue to grow amid annual increases in tariffs for electricity and heat for businesses.
The key demand of territorial energy systems is shifting towards flexibility and survivability, rather than reliability and environmental friendliness. The connection of distributed energy facilities to medium-voltage (6-10 kV) distribution networks allows for significant stability of energy supply, including in emergency and post-emergency modes.
Existing backup power sources are not sufficient for mass outages, and distributed energy facilities are able to compensate for this shortage.
A promising area is the development of local intelligent power systems (LPS) with a capacity of up to 25-50 MW with decentralized emergency management and the possibility of switching to island mode. Russian solutions for the NPP are already ready for implementation.
In conditions of regional capacity shortages, distributed energy remains the fastest and most capital — intensive tool: project implementation time is up to one year, and costs are several times lower than those of large power plants.
A separate potential is associated with the reconstruction of heating gas boilers with the transfer to mini-CHP plants based on domestic equipment, which can become the basis for the formation of an industry order and a national project.
The increase in electricity consumption from data centers and AI infrastructure increases the need for distributed generation as a source of new capacity to connect energy-intensive facilities.